RAINFALL DEFICIT
The alarming rainfall deficit across Jammu and Kashmir during the October–December period highlights a growing climate vulnerability that can no longer be treated as seasonal aberration. With 22 out of 23 districts recording below-normal precipitation and an overall shortfall of 39 percent, the Union Territory finds itself in a precarious position as winter advances.
The data paints a stark picture. Core agricultural and horticultural districts such as Shopian, Kulgam, Budgam and Baramulla have suffered severe deficits, while even traditionally snow-reliant regions of Ladakh have seen rainfall shortages exceeding 70 percent. The lone exception, Poonch, only serves to underline the broader imbalance in precipitation patterns.
This prolonged dry spell poses serious risks. Agriculture, particularly the rabi crop cycle, depends heavily on adequate winter moisture. Low soil hydration threatens wheat and mustard yields, while apple orchards central to Kashmir’s rural economy may face long-term stress due to reduced chilling hours and groundwater recharge. Beyond farms, declining inflows into rivers and reservoirs raise concerns for drinking water availability and hydropower generation, both critical for the region’s stability.
